{"id":712,"date":"2019-08-05T21:42:49","date_gmt":"2019-08-05T12:42:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/?p=712"},"modified":"2019-11-02T18:38:52","modified_gmt":"2019-11-02T09:38:52","slug":"weekly-forex-analysis-05-08-11-08-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/?p=712","title":{"rendered":"How BOJ will make their move on continuously bearish USDJPY"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>USDJPY Real Time Daily Chart<\/h2>\n<p><!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN --><\/p>\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n<div id=\"tradingview_6aca3\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/FX-USDJPY\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"blue-text\">USDJPY Chart<\/span><\/a> by TradingView<\/div>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/tv.js\"><\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n  new TradingView.widget(\n  {\n  \"width\": 700,\n  \"height\": 450,\n  \"symbol\": \"FX:USDJPY\",\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"theme\": \"Light\",\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"toolbar_bg\": \"#f1f3f6\",\n  \"enable_publishing\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": false,\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"studies\": [\n    \"BB@tv-basicstudies\",\n    \"IchimokuCloud@tv-basicstudies\"\n  ],\n  \"show_popup_button\": true,\n  \"popup_width\": \"1000\",\n  \"popup_height\": \"650\",\n  \"container_id\": \"tradingview_6aca3\"\n}\n  );\n  <\/script><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN --><\/p>\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USDJPY\/technicals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Technical Analysis for USDJPY<\/span><\/a> by TradingView<\/div>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-technical-analysis.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"showIntervalTabs\": true,\n  \"width\": \"600\",\n  \"colorTheme\": \"light\",\n  \"isTransparent\": false,\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"symbol\": \"USDJPY\",\n  \"interval\": \"1D\",\n  \"height\": \"5<span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span>00\"\n}\n  <\/script><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Strong JPY<\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\">Recently, JPY has been quite strong. The USDJPY went below 106.00 line downwards on this Monday as a new week started<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> and went down to 105.79 yen <span class=\"s1\">(<\/span>as of 4:00 UTC on the 5th of August<span class=\"s1\">)<\/span>. Last week FOMC decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> and then Chairman Mr. Powell warned that he was looking forward to a market rate cut<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> saying that &#8220;this rate cut is not the beginning of a continuous rate cut in the future&#8221; and as a result, USD has been repurchased up to 109.30. But from there, USD has been weakened rapidly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Its trigger was a sudden tweet by Mr. Trump of imposing a 10% sanctions duty from 1st of September on Chinese $300 billion products. With the resurgence of the US-China trade war<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> which became a ceasefire<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> and a more serious situation<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> the financial and commodity markets are moving toward risk aversion<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> which has led to a drop in US long-term interest rates<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> leading to a sharp appreciation of JPY.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">By the fact that USDJPY dropped below 106.00 level<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> the next target would be on 105.00<span class=\"s1\">, or on the <\/span>higher level of 104.00 range which was recorded in &#8220;flash crash&#8221; on this New Year, 3 of January this year. Unlike the past movements of the USDJPY<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> the movement is also rapid and the volatility tends to be high. With that in mind<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> according to the current market development where it could move 100 pips in one day<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> it might move down towards 102.00 level or even 100.00 level depends on the circumstances.<\/p>\n<h2>How rate cut in BOJ, Fed, ECB, Australia affects the market<\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\">What I am also concerned about is the movement of the BOJ (Bank of Japan). Although there were no policy changes at the last month&#8217;s meeting<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> economists have realized that from June the environment for additional mitigation is coming together. The Fed cut rates<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> and the ECB is also expected to cut rates at its next meeting. Apart from that<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> the Reserve Bank of Australia also cut its interest rate at the meeting in July following on June<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> and the content of the lecture by the central bank president later suggests further rate cut.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">If this situation continues<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> the JPY will tend to be even stronger due to differences in monetary policy stance<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> and there is a growing view that the Bank of Japan meeting in September will announce some mitigation measures. However<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> whether the BOJ will move just because it falls below 105.00 remains unclear. Furthermore<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> it may be possible to save policy changes as the JPY strengthens<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> like when the JPY breaks 100.00 level.<\/p>\n<h2>Pay attention how BOJ&#8217;s will decide<\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\">In addition<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> there is a risk that the Trump administration will perceive it as &#8220;introducing the JPY&#8217;s depreciation&#8221;<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> and it seems that there is a situation where it can not move so easily. However<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> on the other hand<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> if the rapid appreciation of the JPY accelerates<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> it will not stop even if the monetary policy is triggered<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> just as when USDJPY dropped to the 75.00 level in 2011. We need to keep paying our attention to what kind of decisions the BOJ will make.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">In addition<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> the rapid appreciation of the JPY could lead to a deterioration in corporate performance and could even have an impact on the consumption tax hike from this October in Japan.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The market has entered the <span class=\"s1\">\u201cStrong JPY<\/span>\u00a0mode<span class=\"s1\">\u201d<\/span> with the sharp decline in stock prices. If it breaks below 105.00 level<span class=\"s1\">, it <\/span>may be repulsed once<span class=\"s1\">,<\/span> but I think the bull energy is limited. Be careful if you are thinking to buy JPY.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The summer heat has been spreading not only on the air, but also on the exchange market.<\/p>\n<h2>Economic Calendar of the week (UTC)<br \/>\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN --><\/h2>\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/markets\/currencies\/economic-calendar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Economic Calendar<\/span><\/a> by TradingView<\/div>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-events.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"colorTheme\": \"light\",\n  \"isTransparent\": true,\n  \"width\": \"510\",\n  \"height\": \"600\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"importanceFilter\": \"-1,0,1\"\n}\n  <\/script><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USDJPY Real Time Daily Chart USDJPY Chart by TradingView Technical Analysis for USDJPY by TradingView Strong JPY Recently, JPY has been quite strong. The USDJPY went below 106.00 line downwards on this Monday as a new week started, and went down to 105.79 yen (as of 4:00 UTC on the 5th of August). Last week FOMC decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and then Chairman Mr. Powell warned that he was looking forward to a market rate cut, saying that &#8220;this rate cut is not the beginning of a continuous rate cut in the future&#8221; and as a result, USD has been repurchased up to 109.30. But [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":715,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_expiration-date-status":"saved","_expiration-date":0,"_expiration-date-type":"","_expiration-date-categories":[],"_expiration-date-options":[]},"categories":[1],"tags":[3,20,21,41],"class_list":["post-712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-youtube-videos","tag-forex","tag-weeklychartanalysis","tag-usdjpy","tag-forecasts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/712","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=712"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/712\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":716,"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/712\/revisions\/716"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=712"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=712"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forex-kei.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=712"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}