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Weekly Forecasts

How BOJ will make their move on continuously bearish USDJPY

USDJPY Real Time Daily Chart USDJPY Chart by TradingView Technical Analysis for USDJPY by TradingView Strong JPY Recently, JPY has been quite strong. The USDJPY went below 106.00 line downwards on this Monday as a new week started, and went down to 105.79 yen (as of 4:00 UTC on the 5th of August). Last week FOMC decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and then Chairman Mr. Powell warned that he was looking forward to a market rate cut, saying that “this rate cut is not the beginning of a continuous rate cut in the future” and as a result, USD has been repurchased up to 109.30. But…

Weekly Forecasts

Continuous Interest Rate Decrease leads weak USD

USDJPY Realtime Chart USDJPY Chart by TradingView Technical Analysis for USDJPY by TradingView USD on 108 Rate In the last half of last week, USDJPY, which had previously been held at 108 yen, dropped down to 107 level due to ”dovish talk” of FOMC members like Williams in NY Fed and also due to JPY being bought as a result of US Navy defeating Iranian drone at the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East. However, on the weekend, USD was bought back as the Nikkei stock filled the decline on the previous day, and also due to interest rate cut seemed to be postponed and as a result, USDJPY has…

Weekly Forecasts

Interest Rate Decrease leads USD Not Being Bought

USDJPY Real Time Daily Chart USDJPY Chart by TradingView Technical Analysis for USDJPY by TradingView Last week on USDJPY Last week on USDJPY, USD rebounded to 108.99 at one time, but it was pushed back again to the 107 yen level and returned to “the original sheath” without being put on the 109 yen level. The reason for the USD rebounded to 109 rate was because of the positive employee statistics and that’s why USD was bought at a time, but it seems that it was not a move to buy further. FOMC will be held at the end of this month and most likely the interest rate will decrease,…

Weekly Forecasts

Continuous US-China summit and US long term interest rate outlook

Continuous US-China summit and USDJPY Last week, following the results of the US-China summit on trade issues, market opened up with a gap upwards, but in the second half of last week the price dropped to 108 range and further dropped before the summit. The price eventually dropped to the level where it filled the gap. In June’s employment statistics, which attracted attention, the number of non-farm payroll employees was “224,000,” which exceeded the market forecast significantly, and the excessive rate cut for the US economy fell back. As a result, USDJPY went up to 108.64 and went to the middle of the 108 range towards last weekend. US long…

Weekly Forecasts

Weekly Forex Analysis 24/06 – 30/06/2019

A week of G20 The material of this week is the “G20” starting on the 28th, and it is not the “G20” itself, but the diplomacy between the leaders held there, that is, the “top talks.” G20 itself has already been a mere formality and there seems to be little influence. The main topic would be how Japan’s chairman country warns against the rise of “protectionism” and prevents its progress, and whether it can be reflected on the joint statement, but it is nothing more than that. Global economic impact of US-China summit Many market players are paying the most attention to the outcome of the “US-China Summit” that will…

Weekly Forecasts

USD/JPY and EUR/USD outlook along with US-China trade war

On USD/JPY, the rate came back to the middle of the 110 yen range last week, and went back to the lower 109 yen range over the weekend. China has changed to friendly attitude so far, and repeated criticism of the United States, delaying US-China trade talks agreement, broadening the flow of risk aversion from the view that it will be prolonged, falling stock prices and long-term interest rates. Starting this Saturday, the 25% duty will be imposed $60 billion on US products, which is a retaliatory measure against China that they launched recently. The United States also begun to consider the fourth sanctions duty, which could be triggered at…

Weekly Forecasts

US-China trade war and Japanese GDP in relation to consumption tax

US-China trade war has begun Last week, the Trump administration of the United States raised the previous 10% tariff to 25% for $ 200 billion on Chinese products, and also announced to apply the 25% duty to the remaining $ 300 billion as the fourth retaliatory duty, putting pressure on China. In fact, the USTR (US Trade Representative Office) has announced 3800 items are targeted for Chinese products. On the other hand, China announced a countermeasure to put a 5-25% duty on US products $ 60 billion from June 1 and has just shown the appearance of a “trade war.” Because of this, USD/JPY has become more active in buying…

Weekly Forecasts

Brexit has been postponed until October and tariff issue settlement is a key.

On the morning of April 25, with the news that Britain’s Brexit exit has been postponed until October this year, the pound showed selling behavior due to uncertainty over its outlook. Although the talks between the government and Labor Party resumed on the 24th after Easter holiday, the parties did not have a mutual understanding of the tariff after withdrawal. May aims to be free from tariff arrangements with EU May is planning to leave the customs union when leaving the EU. And after exchanging mutual tariff arrangements with the EU, she aims to be able to freely conclude trade agreements with foreign countries outside of the EU without having to…

Weekly Forecasts

Weekly Forex Analysis 22/04 – 28/04/2019

Long holiday is awaiting in Japan USD/JPY continues to be in range at a rate of 112 yen, but there is no noticeable movement, and hard to participate. Meanwhile, the “very large holiday” which has never been seen before in Japan, which is 10 consecutive holidays, will begin this weekend. Now let me show you how investors in Japan see the situation. Some marketers stated “USD/JPY is subject to speculation and may fluctuate significantly,” and others say “it does not move much” and looks like it’s already entered its preliminary stages. In fact, I started to get some inquiries from investors today. I think that the dollar plunging of January 3rd this…

Weekly Forecasts

Weekly Forex Analysis 15/04 – 21/04/2019

Last week’s USD/JPY Last week ‘s USD/JPY went below 111.00 in the middle of the week and the dollar went down to 110.85, but it cut back immediately on the next day and repulsed to the late 111.00 level, and last weekend recovered up to a rate of 112 which was marked on March this year. Although the upper price seems to be heavy on the Tokyo market after the week, it has been hovering around 112, which is unexpectedly strong.  US economic news, including TAG between U.S and Japan from today The US economy is mixed with its strength and weakness, plus the Fed’s monetary policy is neutral, which…